Active

Likelihood Evaluation

The organization shall conduct likelihood evaluations for developed risk scenarios, assessing the probability of scenario occurrence within a defined timeframe. Evaluations shall consider the frequency and probability of scenario events, taking into account existing controls and mitigating factors.

Requirement ID
RSK-009-R005
Parent Control
Domain Code

Requirement Details & Guidance

RSK-009-R005 · RSK-009
Why This Requirement Exists

To estimate the probability of scenario occurrence within a defined timeframe and support scenario prioritization.

Implementation Guidance

Define likelihood criteria and timeframe; consider threat activity, exposure, control effectiveness, historical events, and scenario conditions; document assumptions.

Practical Application & Audit Readiness

RSK-009-R005 · Field Guidance

Business Examples

    Common Audit Findings

      Common Mistakes

        Best Practices & Ownership

        RSK-009 · Recommended Approach

        Recommended Practices

          Typical Owner

          Cross-Mapped Regulatory Frameworks

          Harmonized Control Mappings
          FRAMEWORK CODE FRAMEWORK NAME & DETAILS FAMILY / CATEGORY VERSION ACTION
          COBIT2019 COBIT COBIT is an enterprise governance and management f... Clause: 4.2 – Align, Plan and Organize (APO) > APO12 – Managed Risk > APO12.02 – Analyze risk. 4.2 – Align, Plan and Organize (APO) > APO12 – Managed Risk > APO12.01 – Collect data.
          COBIT
          Governance Framework
          v2019 View →
          DORA Digital Operational Resilience Act The EU Digital Operational Resilience Act establis... Clause: Article 8(2) – Continuous identification of ICT risk sources, cyber threats and ICT vulnerabilities Article 13(1) – Capabilities and staff to gather/analyse vulnerability, threat and incident information
          EU
          Regulation
          vCurrent View →
          IRDAI IRDAI Information & Cyber Security Guidelines IRDAI information and cyber-security requirements... Clause: §1.8-I – Risk Assessment Scenarios; §1.8-II – Target Environments; §1.8-III – Technology Risk Assessment Process
          India
          Guideline
          vLatest View →
          ISO22301 ISO/IEC 22301 ISO 22301 specifies requirements for a Business Co... Clause: 6.1.1 – Determining risks and opportunities; 6.1.2 – Addressing risks and opportunities; 8.2.3 – Risk assessment
          ISO
          Standard
          v2019 View →
          ISO27001 ISO/IEC 27001 ISO/IEC 27001 specifies auditable requirements for... Clause: 6.1.2 – Information security risk assessment
          ISO
          Standard
          v2022 View →
          NIS2 NIS2 Directive The NIS2 Directive establishes EU-wide cybersecuri... Clause: Article 21(2)(a) – Policies on risk analysis and information system security
          EU
          Directive
          vCurrent View →
          NIST-CSF NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) The NIST Cybersecurity Framework provides high-lev... Clause: ID.RA – Risk Assessment | ID.RA-04 – Potential impacts and likelihoods of threats exploiting vulnerabilities are identified and recorded ID.RA – Risk Assessment | ID.RA-05 – Threats, vulnerabilities, likelihoods, and impacts are used to understand inherent risk and inform risk response prioritization
          NIST
          Framework
          v2 View →
          NIST80053 NIST SP 800-53 NIST SP 800-53 Rev. 5 presents control families, i... Clause: 3.16 – RISK ASSESSMENT; RA-3 – RISK ASSESSMENT
          NIST
          Control Catalog
          vRev. 5 View →
          NPCI-ISR NPCI Information Security Requirements NPCI information-security requirements define cont... Clause: Governance Controls; Policy, Roles and Risk Linkages – Cyber Risk Management programs
          India
          Standard
          vLatest View →
          PCI-DSS PCI DSS PCI DSS is an industry security standard maintaine... Clause: 12.3.1 – For each PCI DSS requirement that specifies; 12.3.2 – A targeted risk analysis is performed for each
          PCI
          Standard
          v4 View →
          RBI-CSF RBI Cyber Security Framework / Master Directions RBI cyber-security requirements and directions set... Clause: Circular §5 – Identification/assessment of inherent cyber risks and controls
          India
          Regulation
          vLatest View →
          SEBI-CSCRF SEBI Cyber Security & Cyber Resilience Framework SEBI’s Cybersecurity and Cyber Resilience Framewor... Clause: 2.2 ID.RA: Risk Assessment
          India
          Regulation
          vLatest View →
          SOC2 SOC 2 Trust Services Criteria SOC 2 is an independent examination and reporting... Clause: CC3.2 – Risk Assessment – COSO Principle 7: The entity identifies risks to the achievement of its objectives across the entity and analyzes risks as a basis for determining how the risks should be managed. CC9.1 – Risk Mitigation – The entity identifies, selects, and develops risk mitigation activities for risks arising from potential business disruptions.
          AICPA
          Audit Framework
          vLatest View →

          Parent Domain Context

          Governance Domain Baseline
          Domain Name:
          Risk Management (RSK)
          Purpose:
          To identify, assess, and treat cybersecurity, privacy, and resilience risks.
          Scope:
          Enterprise

          Parent Control Context

          Control Baseline
          Control Name:
          Scenario Analysis (RSK-009)
          Summary:
          Establishes processes to develop and analyze risk scenarios for extreme but plausible events, evaluating potential impacts, likelihood, and response preparedness for severe disruption events.
          Business Description:
          Conduct scenario analysis to understand the potential impact of extreme but plausible events.